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叶檀的博客

re">叶" target="_blaniv>s="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》<">首页blank"/publ-yits="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》日志blank"/publ-yits="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》 arch="_/"> blank"/publ-yits="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》 tarblank"/publ-yitg /publ-yitblo">s="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》s="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》s="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》s="xx ztag">立即重新绑定新浪微博》<;co:ur_/">关于我blank"/publ-yit< logg ..jximgcom-main _w?f.apt sra" hreLsiti= -Math.}.mor(ylogg .7d7d7*(_.jximg/logg ..jximgc-.bst.1)/2)+'px'getElem _w?f.apt sr.jximg _.jximg+'px'getElem}else {g ="bl _w?f.apt sr7d7d7 _7d7d7+'px'getElem _w?f.apt sra" hreTopi= -Math.}.mor(ylogg ..jximg*(_7d7d7/logg .7d7d7)-_.jximg)/2)+'px'getElem}g ="bl_w?f.apt src="httpi= sertck'get}g /di var 关于我blcus立即重新绑定新浪微博》<"an>
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cus="true" desc{us="; 立即重新绑定新浪微博》<"an> id="sinaoauthtirelassblank"-yitou="-yitou="-g ="bl="-yitoudank" href="-yitou="docum r_tme .statuews fc03 tme .statue礵ank" href="-yitdank" href="-yitg ="bl="-ydocumee.stylm-r> a class="itm nou="d"> an> id="sinaoauthti="jxim宋⒉┱蕄lay:block;pex one;}> a w?fss"_blank"> _{colorl im1 im randtag phide" 7d7d7=":0 tiperyt =":0 tiount play:b="0" i v.r辵ngog.1" mozowg);-wg-163cyock icn0 /{color文章分类dank" href="-yit-yitdul6g ="bl="-y-yit-yitttttogta sp.163.com/s5tip" clar#m=6">立即重新绑定新浪微博》 (0)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 不得不辨(8)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 宏观趋势(208)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 金融视界(264)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 楼市真相(331)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 民生为大(146)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 外资并购(22)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 以史为鉴(15)blan立即重新绑定新浪微博》 iv c ="part4" {colorl6g ="bl="-yttttocus="true" ;}.newd"> id="sinaoauthtir宋⒉┱蔵cn1 icn1-4">}.m-valcodea" hret;widthositc.reg.163:100hoverbar .paositef="/newpage/pre1-4"> k"> ma z免费冲印20张照片blank"> <尴拗斡 /weba2&;}._source=%E5%8D%9A%E5%AE%A2%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E8%AF%8D%E5%BA%95%E9%83%A8%E6%92%A9%E5%A6%B9&;}._cus=ackg=%E5%8D%9A%E5%AE%A2%E5%85%B3%E9%94%AE%E8%AF%8D%E5%BA%95%E9%83%A8%E6%92%A9%E5%A6%B9">s="xx ztag">八招诀窍,教你实力撩妹 ="part4" =neteasocuf:uriommfter(&cat=d⒓磇l /webak 40x275&rtc taon=d"> an> id="sinaoauthti="jxim宋⒉┱蕄lay:block;pex one;}ound-pa w?fss"_blank"> < ttat">怎么样的城市化能拉动内需/div> hidefocus="tr bgc0 h3/g //publ-yd tdow"ptfl cleuerw- p/spa//g //publ-yitttg //publ-yittt< faxilow">ss=2-06-26 00:34:30/div> baxilow"> hidefocus="t分类:/div> g //publ-yttttosp.163.com/sn clatip" clar#m=6">立即重新绑定新浪微博》民生为大blank"//publ-yitttd baxilowef="htt= $> hidefocus="t标签:/div> d spa3udshow"= $> g //publ-ytt/div> g //publ-yttd pone;}"spa7re nb-na baxilow"> /div> 举报/div> news tg //publ-ytt/ pone;}"spa7re nb-na baxilow"> /div> tswitchis字号d zihao/end ef="htt= $> n>tsT ://d zihaocl?fco//d tme=; spa4 ime=;<大/div> 中/div> 衦ef="httpa type="te pone;}"pat fs=";= $> id="$_fbox-shadow919r/hidefoss ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://g documee.styl/> 2dim16062 5669740ss=252="t4306 2&w=pa> h=pa> 用微信hidefocus="t“扫一扫”将文章分享到 圈。&dank" hrtttttttttttttttt"ank" href="itttttittttt"cus= $_ hbanBtn_yixin2 ://g documee.styl/> 2dim16062 5669740ss=252="t4306 2&w=pa> h=pa> 用易信hidefocus="t“扫一扫”将文章分享到 圈。&dank" hrtttttttttttttttt"ank" href="itttttitttdank" hrtttttttttttttt sp.163.copone;}"spaetting k"> 号耙的照片书hidefocus="t /d4">  docum宋⒉┱蔵on:relatives="%hoverbar .part1 ;p > tttttttttttttttt"p>< n>t frge="黑体;p -fix="5ti c.reg="#ff:100;p >怎么样的城市化能拉动内需/d n>t礵ab>< tt"p>< / tt"p>< t-family: 宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >解放日报/div> tt"p>< / tt"p>< n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >中国经济结构转型能否成功rel芊窭谛瑁【鲇谥泄媸党鞘谢蹋【鲇诔鞘谢讨="z聘环峙渚舛取t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >城市化可以拉动消费,几乎成为公理。t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >引用一组研究数据,各国发展经验表明,农村人口向城市的迁移,确实会产生巨大的消费“累计效应”。据测算,城市化率提高t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >个百分点,会有/div> pa>0/div> t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万人口从农村到城市 cl氤鞘腥丝诘南咽桥┐宓腷l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >~bl 3bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >倍,詓pa动最终消费增长/div> < t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >个百分点,居民消费总额大约增加bl 1r .fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿元。按这个预测,如果中国城市化率在未纒bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年左右提高t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >~bl 15bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >个百分点,仅居民消费就可以拉动bl 1.2bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿~bl 1.8bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿元。考虑到消费的乘数,以bl 3bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >倍测算,可以拉动bl 3.6bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿~bl 5.4bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿元的消费总量增长。t礵a tt"p>< n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >  bl tb>t礵a tt"p>< n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< hidefocus="thidefo /div> l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >据麦肯锡公司发布的报告,按照目前中国城市化的发展趋势,中国的城市人口将于bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年达礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >襫ou礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年将突破bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿。移民将成为中国未纒城市化的驱动力re带动bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family: Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >的城市人口增长。礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年,中国新增的bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿多城市人口中将有超过bl 2.4bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿的流动人口。报告称,中国个人消费的增长将主要出现噪城市,“中国城市消费量在bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >~bl 2025bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年的增量,就足以创造一个相当于bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年德国市场总规模"nof市场”。bl bl t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >h hidefocus="thidefo /div> lb>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< hidefocus="thidefo /div> l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >据测算,在启动国内投资方面每增加一个城市居民,城市需要新增固定资产投资bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p > t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿元。根据中国宏观经济学会="z馑悖琤l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >~bl 2015bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年间 cl鞘谢s="城镇固定资产投资增量可以达礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万亿元。bl tb>t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >以农民工为例。有z馑惚砻鳎绻赽l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年间让bl 1.3bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿农民工及其家属市民化,城市每年需要新建保障性住房bl 65ibl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万套(/div> t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿平方米、户均bl 8ibl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >平方米),这对钢铁、水泥、建材、家具、家电等bl 57bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >个相关行业将产生重要的pa动作用,同时还将为进城农民新创造bl r .ibl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万个就业机会。t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >公理未必是公理,不同的城市化拉动消费的作用是不同的。t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >印度、巴西均为人口大国ou但噪城市化过程中常见的景观是城市边缘出现庞大的贫民窟,聚居着无数人口,治安、 cl未能此上升,反而出现治安、生育种种顽疾,城市化过程中出现可怕="m-严窒蟆t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< r .7bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年印度官方公布人口统计数据,印度贫民窟的居民数量从bl 1981t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年的bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万人升至bl r .1t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年的bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万人 cl《茸畲蟮某鞘忻下騜l 65ibl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >万人有近一半居民生活在贫民窟中。过去bl 2ibl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年,贫民窟居民人数增長一倍,超过英国总人口数量。在此期间 cl《热丝诖觔l 6.83bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿增至bl 10.3bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿re大约有四分之一的人,每天的消费水准不礶fo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >美di,而l《鹊木胋l 21t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >世纪后在以bl 8bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >%的速度增长。l胛幕蛩 cl《仁鞘澜缁平-汛蠊鷒u却未能成为全球-言龀さ c未能带动国内产业发展。t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< h hidefocus="thidefo /div> l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >国际情况不妙。据世界观察研究所和全球环境研究所bl 2 .7bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年在北京共同发布《世界报告bl 2 .7bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >:我们城市="蠢s》中文版,称全球bl 30/div> t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >译城市人口中有/div> pabl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿居住在“贫民窟”。如果全球发展优先领域不包括大规模bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:"MS Refe163ce Sdes Serif"; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:"MS Refe163ce Sdes Serif";mso-bidi- n>t-family:"MS Refe163ce Sdes Serif"; < >扫除贫困bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >rel敲吹efo t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年新增的bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >亿人口中 c将有超过一半居住在“贫民窟”。bl tb>t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >城市化进程不一定提升-眩灰欢ú鞘腥海炊赡懿睹窨呦窒髍e此时要做的不是铲除贫民窟,而是铲除产生贫民窟的根源,即噪城市化过程中剥夺农民资产,以及z聘环峙涞募炔还蛊独Р蚀荩薹ㄌ嵘-阉健6胶笕毡"nof土地运动与中国台湾地区上世纪bl t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria; mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >年代的土地改革,提供了成功的案例,农民成为有资产者、成为有专业能力的劳动者,顺利融入城市,成为有效-讶禾濉t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >中国城市化过程中的征地 c存在两种倾向,或者剥夺农民土地资产作为城市发展的原始积累,农民成为无效-讶禾澹蛘叨杂诖蟪鞘薪记┟窆炔怪氤鞘斜咴档卮纬墒烤薮蟮氖忱撞悖灰孤榻斓教烀鳌U饬街智阆虿焕谔嵴裣眩薹ㄐ纬捎凶ㄒ导际跄芰Φ睦投撸灾泄笠捣⒄共焕t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >hidefo/db>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< t-family:宋体; mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >值得强调的是 c从最新=研究3 ul,基本"n社会保障体系无法在短期内拉动消费ou但没有基本社会保障体系无法建成未纒-鸦。虼嗽诠ひ祷锥蔚娜丝诖蠊纫⑸绫L逑 cl忠乐股绫2还⒃谀承┝煊蚬雀@窒蟆t礵a tt"p>< t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >h hidefocus="thidefo /div> lb>t礵a < n>t -fix="";= c.reg="#:10066 < >< hidefocus="thidefo /div> l t-family:宋体;mso-tElii- n>t-family:Cambria;mso-ndesi- n>t-family:Cambria;;p >城市化过程中提振消费需要制度保障,需要重建资产分配体系 c重建技术工人的培训渠道,重建资产套现后的使用模式。此时,研究二战后各国城市化成败史,对于中国具有极其重要的借鉴价值。t礵 " > docum< docum立即至⒓粗蠖ㄐ吕sohu> 美国房地产市场感谢中国买家blantt"dcus tttttttt "dcus tttttttt docum< docum< clo篇:/dcus tttttttt documa spy" href="http:/ 立即至⒓粗蠖ㄐ吕sohu> 如果A股有大规模做空span 将进入“无牛”时代t"dl iblock documg ="bl="-y d g ="bl="-y d g ="bl="-y pu"w?fsage.js">g ="bl="-y dl  g ="bl="-y d g ="bl="-y pu"w?fsage.js">g ="bl="-y dl g ="bl="-y g ="bl="-yttg ="bl="-ypu"cus=.163.coed阅读(" 1156bl /div> g ="bl="-yttpu" 评论(" 11"d /div> g ="bl="-yttpupu"cus=.163.co!-- @ nb-top/spa//g tttttttttttttttth ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://hidefoss ://g documee.styl/> 2dim16062 5669740ss=252="t4306 2&w=pa> h=pa> 用微信hidefocus="t“扫一扫”将文章分享到 圈。&dank" hrtttttttttttttttt"ank" href="itttttittttt"cus= $_ hbanBtn_yixin ://g documee.styl/> 2dim16062 5669740ss=252="t4306 2&w=pa> h=pa> 用易信hidefocus="t“扫一扫”将文章分享到 圈。&dank" hrtttttttttttttttt"ank" href="itttttitttdank" hrttttttttttttttg ="bl="-ytt dform=宋⒉┱蔵cn1 icn1-4";p !-- @ToLa> Formtiaetho ost k">